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At the Fedora Linux 38 release party, the Docs team suggested that we take advantage of a virtual meetup to bring teamwork into documentation writing. Documentation writing shouldn’t be a solitary pursuit.

An interactive session at Flock 2023 helped exchange ideas on a collaborative way to run meetings and invite more contributions for documentation.

After months of waiting for ideas to be finalized, the Docs team is pleased to announce the workshop will begin September 2023.

If you fancy coming along, just let us know your preferred timeslot in the When-is-good scheduler by September 15 2023.

But why and how?

The idea behind a virtual writing session is to combine the power of the Fedora Podcast with advocacy of writing and maintaining excellent user documentation. Here is why.

• Documentation in any free and open source software project provides reasons for users and contributors to stay loyal to the project and software.
• The Docs workshop aims to facilitate individual and collaborative work through a supportive community of documentarians.
• Documentation is more than a fix of visual presentation. We’re writing, reviewing, and deploying docs.
• In accordance with the Fedora project motto “First”, we like to try new things in toolset, automation, and UI improvement.

Building on feedback from each session, the Docs team wants to empower people to learn about templates, issue tickets, review processes, and tool chains to improve documentation for Fedora Linux users and contributors.

Program agenda

A monthly agenda will be posted in Fedocal and Fosstodon (@fedora@fosstodon.org).

Track 1: Introduction and onboarding (odd months)
– What the Docs team is all about. What role will interest you?
– The types of user documentation Fedora Linux publishes
– How you can help improve Fedora Documentation.

Track 2: Skill-based workshop (even months)
– Technical review, Git workshop, AsciiDoc template and attributes
– Use of local build and preview script
– Test documentation quality

Format of Track 2
– Demo
– Try it yourself
– Q&A

If you come along to the Track 2 workshop, all you need is a Fedora account and Pagure account with your computer, preferably with Git and Podman (or Docker) installed.

In the meantime, if you have questions, feel free to drop by our Discussion forum. I’m looking forward to saying hello at our first virtual docs workshop someday in late September (the exact date depends on the when-is-good responses)! Let’s do it!

The fun is just getting started.

The latest changelog for the recently released Beta & Preview 1.19.80.21.

Experimental Features

Armor Trims

• You can now visually customize your armor with a variety of unique trims at the Smithing Table
• Armor Trims are purely visual with no gameplay benefits, and can only be applied to Helmets, Chestplates, Leggings, and Boots
  
  • All trim patterns are visually the same on an armor’s item icon, but the color will still change based on the trim material
  • To check which trim pattern a piece of armor has, you can hover over it in the inventory
• Armor Trim Smithing Templates can be found all throughout the world, and each of the following structures contains its own unique Smithing Template:
  
  • Pillager Outpost
    
    • Sentry Armor Trim
  • Desert Pyramid
    
    • Dune Armor Trim
  • Shipwreck
    
    • Coast Armor Trim
  • Jungle Temple
    
    • Wild Armor Trim
  • Ocean Monument
    
    • Tide Armor Trim
  • Ancient City
    
    • Ward Armor Trim
  • Woodland Mansion
    
    • Vex Armor Trim
  • Nether Fortress
    
    • Rib Armor Trim
  • Bastion Remnant
    
    • Snout Armor Trim
  • Stronghold
    
    • Eye Armor Trim
  • End City
    
    • Spire Armor Trim
  • Smithing Templates are found in Chests in their respective structure, except for the Ocean Monument. Instead of finding it in Chests, Elder Guardians sometimes drop a Smithing Template when defeated
  • Some Armor Trim Smithing Templates are rarer than others, so be on the lookout for them to impress your friends!
  • An Armor Trim has two properties: a pattern and a material
    
    • The pattern is defined by the Smithing Template used to apply the trim and represents the visual pattern of the trim
    • The material is defined by what ingredient you used to apply the trim and represents the color of the trim
  • The viable ingredients you can use to define the color of your Armor Trim are the following:
    
    • Iron
    • Copper
    • Gold
    • Lapis
    • Emerald
    • Diamond
    • Netherite
    • Redstone
    • Amethyst
    • Quartz

Blocks

• The Piglin Head Block’s ears now flap when the wearer is Riding a vehicle
• Cherry Stripped Wood can now be crafted from Cherry Stripped Log (MCPE-168053)
• Updated Cherry Leaves & Cherry Sign textures (MCPE-168059)

Archaeology feature set:

• Added the Suspicious Gravel block

Mobs

• Frogs born in the Cherry Grove biome are now the temperate variant instead of the cold variant (MCPE-168083)

Netherite Equipment

• Netherite equipment crafting now also requires a Netherite Upgrade Smithing Template
• Netherite Upgrade Smithing Templates can be found randomly in all Bastion Remnant chests, and there is a guarantee of 2 in every Treasure Room Bastion Remnant
• This change was made for a variety of reasons:
  
  • Increases the time players utilize Diamond equipment before Netherite
  • Make Netherite equipment a more significant achievement in the game’s progression
  • Adapts Netherite more naturally into the new Smithing Table crafting system

Smithing Templates

• Smithing Tables have been redesigned into a workstation for physical equipment upgrades and modifications
• Alongside slots for combining a piece of equipment and materials, there is now a required slot for an item type called Smithing Templates
• Smithing Templates define what type of upgrade you will be making to the equipment
  
  • It specifies both what type of items you can upgrade, and which ingredients are valid to customize the upgrade
  • There are currently two categories of Smithing Templates: Armor Trim and Netherite Upgrade
• Smithing Templates are consumed when used to upgrade an item in the Smithing Table
• You can craft a copy of a Smithing Template in the Crafting Table with 7 Diamonds + 1 block of material that the template is made out of + 1 Smithing Template, which will output 2 of the same Smithing Template

Features and Bug Fixes

Accessibility Features

• Potions no longer have an enchantment glint due to it obscuring the color of the potion contents
• Potions have had their colors adjusted to make them more distinguishable from each other
• Decreased the default visibility of the glint on enchanted items, which can now be modified in the Accessibility Settings

Blocks

• “fence” block is now split into unique names, “oak_fence”, “acacia_fence”, “birch_fence”, “dark_oak_fence”, “jungle_fence”, and “spruce_fence”
• Commands will still work with “fence”, but only new fence names will be suggested in the command prompt

Gameplay

• Fixed experience orb position desync after teleport (MCPE-59584)
• Going into lava in third person view no longer causes the camera to turn black (MCPE-166861)
• Fixed an issue where players load incorrect data when loading a local game after connecting to a server or Realm (MCPE-164765)
• Fixed an issue where the player camera height was incorrect with or without the sneak toggle (MCPE-167559)

Graphical

• LevelChunks no longer flicker in The End dimension when Clientside Chunk Generation is enabled

User Interface

• Corrected toggle navigation in the Edit World menu while using a gamepad or keyboard that was previously skipped
• Updated designs for sign-in and sign-up screens in the preview

Vanilla Parity

• Search bar in Creative inventory screen is now automatically selected while using a keyboard

Villagers

• Villagers will now wake up in a valid position and will not phase through blocks (MCPE-142544)

Technical Updates

AI Goals

• Added “cooldown” field to target descriptors in “minecraft:behavior.nearest_attackable_target” goal

Blocks

• Sponges no longer emit water drop particles underwater (MCPE-122138)

Commands

• For worlds using game version 1.19.80 and above, acquiring a custom spawn egg through a command can only succeed with their full name rather than with an aux value, eg. “/give @s namespace:actor_spawn_egg”
• Removed requirement for blockState argument(s) when using other optional args in /fill /setblock and /clone (MCPE-167959)
• Implemented the “inputpermission” command, which allows for setting the player’s camera or movement as enabled or disabled
  
  • Syntax: /inputpermission set <target: player> <permission: camera | movement> <state: enabled | disabled>
• Implemented the “haspermission” target selector, which allows for selection based on player permission levels

General

• For behavior packs using version 1.19.80 and above, recipes no longer accept a Molang query for the item’s data field, instead use the item’s full name, eg. use { “item”: “namespace:actor_spawn_egg” } instead of { “item”: “spawn_egg”, “data”: “query.get_actor_info_id(‘namespace:actor’)” }

Experimental Technical Features

Editor

The Editor is in early development, and available for keyboard/mouse on Windows PC Bedrock Preview builds. Join our Discussion forum, post bugs, view more detailed release notes, and share your creations on GitHub.

• Custom blocks are now listed in the block selector
• Fixed z-fighting on paste preview over selection volume

 Scripting

• Form promises are now rejected using typed errors, vs. strings as used previously

ItemStack

• Added function getTags(): string[]– Returns all tags for the item
• Added function hasTag(tag: string): boolean– Returns true if the item has the specified tag

EntityEquipmentInventoryComponent

• This component is used to manipulate the equipment of mobs and players. To use it, call getComponent(‘equipment_inventory’)
• Added function getEquipment(equipmentSlot: EquipmentSlot): ItemStack | undefined– Returns the item in the given equipment slot
• Added function getEquipmentSlot(equipmentSlot: EquipmentSlot): ContainerSlot– Returns the container slot for the given equipment slot
• Added function setEquipment(equipmentSlot: EquipmentSlot, itemStack?: ItemStack): void– Sets the item in the given equipment slot

ItemDurabilityComponent

• The ItemDurabilityComponent now works with all damageable items, not just custom items
• Removed property damageRange
• Setting damage will now throw an exception if it is outside of the range [0, maxDurability]

GameTest Framework

• Update specific GameTest exceptions to be thrown as GameTestError error objects

Good Company is Now Available on Steam and is 20% off!*

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Soedesco is adding to the horrors of Halloween on Switch as it’s announced a 27th October release date for Superlumen’s Lovecraftian point-and-click Desolatium.

Originally announced back in June 2023, Desolatium is a surreal, psychological graphic adventure where you’ll come face-to-face with many of Lovecraft’s iconic creatures — many of which “defy conventional description”.

Desolatium has already been highly praised for its innovative structure and sound design, so don’t go in expecting this to be your typical Lovecraftian horror experience. For more on the game, watch the release date trailer up top and check out some details from publisher Soedesco:

Based on the work of H.P. Lovecraft
As many horror fans know, H.P. Lovecraft is the famed author who pioneered cosmic horror, exploring humanity’s vulnerability against ancient malevolent forces. His eerie, psychological tales are embedded in DESOLATIUM, as you encounter otherworldly beings, mysterious cults, and horrifying truths.

Discover otherworldly beings
These monstrous entities often defy conventional descriptions, combining alien features and unsettling forms. They are ancient and powerful beings exist beyond human understanding. These monsters embody a sense of insignificance and dread, showcasing humanity’s vulnerability in the face of incomprehensible forces. Will you have what it takes to stop them?

An award-winning Graphic Adventure
Awarded the “Most Innovative Game” award by PlayStation and the “Best Sound” award by Gamepolis, DESOLATIUM is a never-before-seen horror experience that encapsulates the eerie dread that Lovecraft is known for, filled with exciting mysteries to solve.

Desolatium launches on Switch on 27th October, making it the perfect game to play this Halloween. Will you be checking this one out? Let us know in the comments.

Price is a function of supply and demand. Increase demand and price goes up. Increase supply and price goes down.

Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins forever. So we don’t need to worry about supply, it is 100% predictable and limited to 21,000,000 BTC in the year 2140.

With fixed supply, the investment case for Bitcoin is simple: Will there be more demand for Bitcoin in the future?

If yes, the price will go up. If not, the price will go down. The extent of future demand for BTC controls the exact degree of price movement.

So, what are some key demand drivers for Bitcoin?

Here’s a quick overview of the demand drivers and my estimated annual $ volume:

Let’s dive into these points one by one. At the end of this article, I’ll give you my estimation of what this will mean for the BTC price (this will blow your mind )!

1. Nation States’ Adoption

How it Drives Demand: As countries face economic uncertainties, some are turning to Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. By holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, nations can hedge against currency devaluation and global economic downturns.

Guess who’s the biggest holder of Bitcoin among all nation states?

The United States of America! (source)

But there are many other nation states that have a large incentive to accumulate and hold Bitcoin quickly. The game theory may drive more nations into Bitcoin — and quicker than you expect!

The inception of Bitcoin was driven by the need for a decentralized currency, free from the control of central banks, especially in the wake of financial crises that have historically plagued various nations.

Bitcoin, built on a peer-to-peer network, offers a solution to countries with weak currencies or high inflation rates, serving as a hedge against currency devaluation. Its decentralized nature also shields it from government censorship or interference.

Countries like El Salvador and the Central African Republic have recognized Bitcoin’s potential, adopting it as official legal tender. El Salvador’s experience post-adoption showcases the tangible benefits, with significant growth in tourism, remittance savings, and a surge in popularity.

Currently, nation states hold roughly $11 billion in Bitcoin (source):

But how much money could flow into Bitcoin? What is the TAM? Here’s a chart of the consolidated balance sheet assets of the Eurosystem:

If 1% of the $8,000 billion balance sheet of the Eurosystem consolidated balance sheets would flow into Bitcoin each year, the annual dollar demand would be $80 billion for the Eurozone alone.

However, Europe makes only a small portion of the overall nation state reserves as can be seen in this graphic (source):

Bitcoin demand driver: So a conservative estimation of the annual dollar volume that could easily be flowing into Bitcoin only by nation state treasuries would be as follows.

Estimated Annual Dollar Volume: $50 billion – $100 billion.

2. Corporate Adoption

How it Drives Demand: Companies, from tech giants to small startups, diversify their assets by investing in Bitcoin, which can act as a hedge against inflation and showcase a forward-thinking approach.

Currently, public and private companies hold already $17 billion in Bitcoin (source):

Here are a few examples (non-exhaustive list) of public companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets (source):

As Bitcoin is already one of the largest currencies by market cap (source) and the only currency with limited supply (=21 million BTC), companies worldwide may decide to allocate a fair portion of their currency holdings to Bitcoin.

13 US companies hoard $1 trillion in cash (Google, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft). A sensible strategy for these cash holdings is to invest a portion, e.g., 10%, into the hardest currency, Bitcoin, that cannot be inflated away. Investing 10% or even only 2% into Bitcoin would contain volatility while injecting a better-than-treasury risk/return ratio, as determined in many financial research studies.

For example:

5% of 1 trillion USD is $50 billion dollars and we’re talking only about 13 US companies’ cash positions! So we may easily see a $20 to $40 billion annual USD demand for Bitcoin from corporate investors alone (public and private companies).

Estimated Annual Dollar Volume: $20 billion – $40 billion.

3. Individual Investment Strategy

How it Drives Demand: The average person is becoming more crypto-savvy. By dollar-cost-averaging into Bitcoin, individuals are viewing it as a long-term investment, similar to stocks or real estate.

There are already more Bitcoin Hodlers than Spanish citizens. It’s a medium-sized country that grows quicker than any other nation state!

What do these people do? They accumulate Bitcoin, month after month after month, and never stop. This drives annual demand.

For example, say you have 100 million people buying only $100 of Bitcoin every single month, on average, you’ll get an annual USD demand for Bitcoin by individual hodlers of $10 billion USD.

But the average is always skewed up in financial matters, because a small percentage of people hold a big percentage of assets, the average buy pressure may be much higher for 100 million individual hodlers.

Estimated Annual Dollar Volume: $10 billion – $30 billion.

4. AI and Autonomous Agents

How it Drives Demand: The rise of AI and autonomous agents using Bitcoin for transactions showcases the digital currency’s versatility. These agents require a permissionless system to operate efficiently.

Soon an infinite number of intelligent agents based on LLMs and other AI technologies will start to acquire the scarcest good on Earth, which makes it even more scarce for ordinary people like you and me.

Recommended: The Scarcest Resource on Earth

Bitcoin is money over IP, it is Internet-native money that can be accessed without permission. A machine cannot open a bank account but they can create a Bitcoin account — or hundreds at the same time — and start accumulating monetary energy.

With the rapid adoption of autonomous agents such as BabyAGI and Auto-GPT, there will be billions of profit-oriented AIs soon that do nothing else but accumulate and hold the most Internet-native scarce good, that is, Bitcoin.

This recent Ark invest video talks about Bitcoin’s role for AI agents:

With 100 million autonomous Bitcoin agents working for 24 hours 365 days per year, we can expect an average income of $365 per year or a dollar a day (conservative!). All of this will flow into Bitcoin!

Estimated Annual Dollar Volume: $10 billion – $30 billion. Or much more.

5. Bitcoin ETFs

How it Drives Demand: ETFs simplify Bitcoin investment for traditional investors. By buying into an ETF, investors indirectly own Bitcoin without managing a wallet.

This is the historical development of assets under management of the ETF industry globally (source):

If we estimate that only 0.5% of the AUM will flow into Bitcoin annually (there’s a lot of internal and external growth so this is extremely conservative), we’d get a $50 billion annual USD demand for Bitcoin.

Let’s cut this by half to stay super conservative:

Estimated Annual Dollar Volume: $15 billion – $25 billion.

6. Remittances and Cross-border Transactions

How it Drives Demand: Bitcoin offers a cheaper and faster solution for international money transfers, especially in countries with expensive or slow banking processes.

We already discussed this in the “nation state adoption” point but we didn’t count it towards the Bitcoin demand there.

Worldbank: “This edition of the Brief also revises upwards 2022’s growth in remittance flows to 8%, reaching $647 billion.” (source)

“Globally, sending remittances costs an average of 6.25 percent of the amount sent.” (source)

As already proven by the country El Salvador, Bitcoin is the easy fix the Worldbank is looking for. The Bitcoin Lightning network can solve the remittance problem in the world, instant and free payments without intermediaries, saving $40 billion annually or more.

We assume that of the $600 billion of annual remittance payments, $5 to $10 will flow into the superior solution Bitcoin. Again, we err’ on the conservative side.

Estimated Annual Dollar Volume: $5 billion – $10 billion.

7. Hedge Against Inflation

How it Drives Demand: In countries with hyperinflation, Bitcoin is a refuge. It offers a stable alternative to rapidly devaluing local currencies.

But inflation is a fact in almost every economy — most people would agree that the major source is monetary debasement, i.e., more dollars are created which results in higher prices of non-dollar assets and goods.

Here’s the chart of recent inflation numbers globally (as these are official, they are a conservative proxy for real inflation):

Thus, if the demand for Bitcoin stays the same, the monetary units (e.g., USD, EUR, CNY) flowing into Bitcoin will increase by ~5% annually. For a $500 billion asset that is Bitcoin, this yields an annual demand increase of $25 billion.

Note that this figure doesn’t include the additional monetary units coming from people who actually want to hedge against inflation by buying Bitcoin. This is just to account for the monetary debasement of the money already flowing into Bitcoin.

The real annual demand is likely to be much higher.

Estimated Annual Dollar Volume: $15 billion – $25 billion.

8. Financial Inclusion

How it Drives Demand: For the billions without access to traditional banking, Bitcoin offers financial services, from saving to borrowing.

As the billions of unbanked people are usually poor, the annual dollar volume from these people won’t be much.

According to the World Bank Group, as of 2017, 31% of the world’s adult population, or approximately 1.7 billion people, were unbanked (source: World Bank Group). McKinsey & Company estimates that as of 2019, 2.5 billion of the world’s adults do not use formal banks or semiformal microfinance institutions to save or borrow money (source: McKinsey & Company).

According to the World Bank Group, the bottom 20% of the world’s population had an average income of $1,298 in 2017 (source: World Bank Group).

Although the numbers are unimpressive, let’s assume that only $1 to $3 per year goes into Bitcoin. I don’t know how I can make it more conservative than that given that Bitcoin may be the only option for those people to participate in the global financial system — and Bitcoin is inclusive and doesn’t reject them like banks do.

Estimated Annual Dollar Volume: $2 billion – $10 billion.

9. Speculation and Trading

How it Drives Demand: Active traders buy and sell Bitcoin daily, hoping to profit from its volatility. This trading volume significantly contributes to its demand.

The monthly trading volume is roughly $400 billion for Bitcoin (~$5,000 billion annually). Let’s assume the Bitcoin trading demand grows by 1% per year and the growth rate gradually declines. Assuming a $50 billion annual new flow into Bitcoin just for trading purposes doesn’t seem unrealistic to me at all, that’s only 1% of the annual trading volume.

Estimated Annual Dollar Volume: $20 billion – $50 billion.

10. Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Platforms

How it Drives Demand: Bitcoin can be integrated into DeFi platforms, allowing for lending and borrowing.

Business Research Company: “The global lending market size grew from $7887.89 billion in 2022 to $8682.26 billion in 2023 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.1%.” (source)

The CAGR of 10% implies a first-year cash flow (demand) into the decentralized finance market of $800 billion per year.

Many platforms for borrowing and lending using Bitcoin exist but I don’t believe it’ll be a big market share from the $800 billion of new capital, probably only a tiny portion like $1 billion to $5 billion will flow into Bitcoin. This is because you need asset collateral first before you can borrow against them. Most people don’t have significant BTC assets though.

This may change over time but let’s stay hyper conservative.

Estimated Annual Dollar Volume: $1 billion – $5 billion.

11. Retail and Merchant Adoption

How it Drives Demand: As more merchants accept Bitcoin, its utility as a currency grows, driving both consumer and business demand.

The lightning network (=Bitcoin’s layer 2 cheap and fast payment solution) grows significantly but is still small (source):

The total addressable market (TAM) of payments is huge but let’s keep it super conservative. This overestimates the cash demand in the short term but significantly underestimates it in the long term:

Estimated Annual Dollar Volume: $1 billion

12. Institutional Investment Products

How it Drives Demand: Beyond ETFs, products like futures and mutual funds centered around Bitcoin attract institutional investors.

Business Research Company: “The market size of global investments market is expected to grow to $5193.94 billion in 2027 at a CAGR of 7.9%.” (source)

There will be some demand for Bitcoin derivatives such as futures or short products and mutual funds concentrating on Bitcoin-related industries such as mining. Let’s assume the new money flowing into these products is less than the CAGR so it remains meaningless in the big scheme of things. Again to stay conservative.

Estimated Annual Dollar Volume: $10 billion – $20 billion.

13. Network Effects and Education

How it Drives Demand: The more people use Bitcoin, the more valuable and accepted it becomes, creating a positive feedback loop.

For instance, the more developers, educators, researchers, and investors contribute to Bitcoin, the stronger the network becomes creating a virtuous loop. A classic example of a network effect that is hard to beat.

You could argue this will be the mother of all demand drivers for BTC but let’s stay conservative and assign a small number to it:

Estimated Annual Dollar Volume: $5 billion – $10 billion.

If you want my detailed view on Bitcoin network effects, check out the following blog tutorial:

Recommended: Want Exploding Prices North of $500,000 per BTC? “Grow N” Says Metcalfe’s Law

Summary and Bitcoin Price Derivation

So let’s recap the annual dollar demand moving into Bitcoin based on the analysis in this article:

Based on this analysis, we anticipate an annual USD inflow of $164 billion to $355 billion into Bitcoin. While there will be outflows, the demand drivers are expected to expand over time rather than diminish. For example, as nation states continue to print more currency, their acquisition of Bitcoin will likely intensify. But for the sake of argument, let’s assume that half of the projected inflow is withdrawn from the Bitcoin market each year. This would result in an approximate annual net positive demand of $80 billion to $175 billion for Bitcoin.

Consider a scenario where the net demand for Bitcoin is $100 billion, and its market cap stands at $500 billion (as of this writing). If the market cap remained constant for five years, the cumulative net demand would have absorbed all available Bitcoin by the end of the fifth year. If the USD demand remains consistent or increases, the only logical outcome would be a rise in the market capitalization, translating to an increase in Bitcoin’s price.

With a consistent $100 billion net demand increasing annually, Bitcoin’s market cap would likely approach $10 trillion USD rather than just $1 trillion USD. Otherwise, we’d encounter the same supply issue.

This market cap would continue to grow indefinitely in response to unceasing demand. Thus, Bitcoin’s price trajectory is upward, albeit with expected fluctuations.

At a market cap of $10 trillion, the additional annual demand of $100 billion could be theoretically accommodated, as it would take a century for this demand to absorb all the Bitcoin. However, if an increasing number of individuals, institutions, and nation states adopt a long-term holding strategy (HODL), the market cap would need to rise even further.

A $10 trillion market cap for Bitcoin would correlate with a price of $500,000 per Bitcoin. This aligns with my recent analysis using Metcalfe’s Law and is also comparable to the gold market cap (approximately $12 trillion USD or roughly $600k per BTC). This suggests a convergence of multiple influencing factors.

Recommended: Want Exploding Prices North of $500,000 per BTC? “Grow N” Says Metcalfe’s Law

The post 13 Insane Bitcoin Demand Drivers That Force the Price Up appeared first on Be on the Right Side of Change.