{"id":137476,"date":"2026-06-06T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-06T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/#article-201292"},"modified":"2026-06-06T15:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-06T15:00:00","slug":"feature-switch-2-year-one-how-closely-did-nintendo-follow-its-own-playbook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/2026\/06\/06\/feature-switch-2-year-one-how-closely-did-nintendo-follow-its-own-playbook\/","title":{"rendered":"Feature: Switch 2, Year One &#8211; How Closely Did Nintendo Follow Its Own Playbook?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"media_block\"><a href=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/04dcc58648082\/large.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/04dcc58648082\/small.jpg\" class=\"media_thumbnail\"><\/a><\/div>\n<figure class=\"picture\" data-uuid=\"198ff1c8335a1\"><a class=\"scanlines\" title=\"Switch 2 and Joy-Con bench\" href=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/198ff1c8335a1\/switch-2-and-joy-con-bench.large.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/198ff1c8335a1\/switch-2-and-joy-con-bench.900x.jpg\" width=\"900\" height=\"600\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Switch 2 and Joy-Con bench\"><\/a><figcaption class=\"caption\"><em class=\"credit\"><span class><\/span> Image: Zion Grassl \/ Nintendo Life<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Exactly two years ago, I made <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/features\/we-look-to-the-past-to-predict-every-first-party-switch-2-release-until-2029\">a bold prediction<\/a> of every first-party Switch 2 release over the first five years of its lifespan.<\/p>\n<p>My forecast wasn\u2019t based on leaked insider information or baseless speculation. Instead, I crunched the numbers (check out the full breakdown <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1J1-vdf1y88t7FytlO0-ytdRmq6YlsEKVniy4J3LqhGk\/edit?usp=sharing\">here<\/a>) to find trends and repeated behaviours over Nintendo\u2019s generations&#8217; worth of game-making.<\/p>\n<p>Numerous patterns emerged, such as the average number of years between releases per franchise, the number of releases per generation by franchise, the number of releases per year per console generation, the average generational year that each franchise receives a release, and so on.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s call it the &#8216;Nintendo Playbook.&#8217;<\/p>\n<p><!-- cache: html:nintendolife.com\/ssl\/nintendo-switch-2\/related-articles:166776 @ 1780768939 --><\/p>\n<aside class=\"block object-related\"> <\/aside>\n<p>Sprinkle in a bit of educated guesswork and we had ourselves a release schedule that Nintendo could\u2019ve copy-pasted directly into their corporate plans. But did they?<\/p>\n<p>With Year One now in the books, let\u2019s see how closely Nintendo followed the script.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"picture\" data-uuid=\"8ccfc041603c7\"><a class=\"scanlines\" title=\"Switch 2 spreadsheet\" href=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/8ccfc041603c7\/switch-2-spreadsheet.large.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/8ccfc041603c7\/switch-2-spreadsheet.900x.jpg\" width=\"900\" height=\"867\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Switch 2 spreadsheet\"><\/a><figcaption class=\"caption\"><em class=\"credit\"><span class><\/span> Image: Nathan Lockard \/ Nintendo Life<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3><strong>Following the Script<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Minus Switch 2 Editions of older titles, Nintendo released <strong>13 first-party titles<\/strong> in the Switch 2\u2019s inaugural year, and the Playbook successfully identified 10 of them:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>6 mainline entries, for Donkey Kong, Mario Kart, Mario Party, Metroid, Pok\u00e9mon, Yoshi, and Star Fox*<\/li>\n<li>2 new IPs<\/li>\n<li>and 2 non-mainline releases in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/pokemon-pokopia\">Pok\u00e9mon<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/hyrule-warriors-age-of-imprisonment\">Zelda<\/a> franchises<sub><br \/>*almost<\/sub><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/mario-kart-world\">Mario Kart<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch\/pokemon_legends_z-a\">Pok\u00e9mon<\/a> titles are all but guaranteed in Year One, and the Switch 2 didn\u2019t disappoint. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/metroid-prime-4-beyond-nintendo-switch-2-edition\">Metroid Prime 4<\/a> was another easy prediction, given its inevitable dual launch for the Switch &amp; Switch 2.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"picture\" data-uuid=\"cf23628fcd549\"><a class=\"scanlines\" title=\"Switch 2 box\" href=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/cf23628fcd549\/switch-2-box.large.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/cf23628fcd549\/switch-2-box.900x.jpg\" width=\"900\" height=\"600\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Switch 2 box\"><\/a><figcaption class=\"caption\"><em class=\"credit\"><span class><\/span> Image: Zion Grassl \/ Nintendo Life<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>While I don\u2019t expect a gold star for knowing the sun rises in the East, you\u2019ll forgive a victory lap for my spreadsheet suggesting the first <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/donkey-kong-bananza\">3D DK title<\/a> in 26 years and an otherwise unlikely <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/star-fox\">Star Fox<\/a> series revival. And yes, I\u2019m lumping the 3D rail shooter into Year One even though it technically misses it by a couple of weeks.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/yoshi-and-the-mysterious-book\">Yoshi and the Mysterious Book<\/a> was another solid prediction. Mario\u2019s dino pal usually appears mid-cycle, but the math indicated an early appearance this time around.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, and admittedly this is a stretch, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch\/super_mario_party_jamboree\">Super Mario Party Jamboree<\/a> arrived on the Switch only five months before the Switch 2 launched, but received a hefty <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/reviews\/nintendo-switch-2\/super-mario-party-jamboree-nintendo-switch-2-edition-plus-jamboree-tv\">Switch 2 Edition<\/a> to satisfy the franchise\u2019s Year One slot.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Year One Anomalies<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Like the pirate\u2019s code, Nintendo\u2019s Playbook proved to be more what you&#8217;d call guidelines than actual rules. Four predictions that didn\u2019t come true were mainline Super Mario and Xenoblade Chronicles titles, a Fire Emblem remake, and a third New IP.<\/p>\n<p>Mario\u2019s absence is downright shocking. Two years ago, I proclaimed that <em>\u201cThere are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and a mainline Mario game during a Nintendo console\u2019s first year.\u201d<\/em> Apparently we\u2019re down to two absolutes, because, for the first time ever, Mario didn\u2019t show up in Year One, notwithstanding the underwhelming Switch 2 Edition of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/super-mario-bros-wonder-nintendo-switch-2-edition-plus-meetup-in-bellabel-park\">Super Mario Bros. Wonder<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Technically, the GBA didn\u2019t get an exclusive Mario either, although it did receive a couple of remastered ports (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/gba\/super_mario_advance\">Super Mario Advance 1<\/a> &amp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/gba\/super_mario_advance_2_super_mario_world\">2<\/a>). Heck, even the lowly Virtual Boy received <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/virtualboy\/mario_clash\">an exclusive Mario title<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps Nintendo decided that last year\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch\/super_mario_galaxy_plus_super_mario_galaxy_2\">Super Mario Galaxy 1 &amp; 2<\/a> bundle was sufficient to check their Year One Mario obligation. The Playbook forecast that game\u2019s release, though not until Year 3. If only I had known that The Mario Movie sequel would bump up the compilation\u2019s release date!<\/p>\n<figure class=\"picture\" data-uuid=\"73c3f5b448d71\"><a class=\"scanlines\" title=\"Joy-Con bench\" href=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/73c3f5b448d71\/joy-con-bench.large.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/73c3f5b448d71\/joy-con-bench.900x.jpg\" width=\"900\" height=\"600\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Joy-Con bench\"><\/a><figcaption class=\"caption\"><em class=\"credit\"><span class><\/span> Image: Zion Grassl \/ Nintendo Life<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/mario-tennis-fever\">Mario Tennis Fever<\/a> also came far sooner than anticipated, but given its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/news\/2026\/02\/uk-charts-mario-tennis-fever-gets-lobbed-by-old-favourites\">lacklustre sales<\/a>, it appears Nintendo should\u2019ve stuck with its usual mid-cycle rally rather than a Year One serve.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/kirby-air-riders\">Kirby Air Riders<\/a> charged onto the scene as another surprise. My bingo card didn\u2019t include a sequel to a 20-year-old, one-and-done Kirby spinoff title, but looking back, I should\u2019ve known Kirby would make his annual appearance.<\/p>\n<p>Xenoblade Chronicles 4 turned out to be a reach, although we did get (how do I put this nicely?) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/news\/2026\/02\/fans-are-asking-nintendo-to-refund-xenoblade-chronicles-xs-switch-2-upgrade\">an unvaunted Switch 2 port<\/a> of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch\/xenoblade_chronicles_x_definitive_edition\">Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Rounding out the year\u2019s anomalies was the Switch 2 bucking a trend by introducing only two original IPs: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/drag-x-drive\">Drag X Drive<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/nintendo-switch-2-welcome-tour\">Nintendo Switch Welcome Tour<\/a>. The previous three consoles fielded exactly three new IPs each, making this the fewest new franchises for a home console\u2019s first year since the Nintendo 64\u2019s inaugural outing in 1996-1997.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Looking Ahead to Year Two<\/strong><\/h3>\n<figure class=\"picture\" data-uuid=\"561c6b3a6aea8\"><a class=\"scanlines\" title=\"Switch 2 back bench\" href=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/561c6b3a6aea8\/switch-2-back-bench.large.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/561c6b3a6aea8\/switch-2-back-bench.900x.jpg\" width=\"900\" height=\"600\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Switch 2 back bench\"><\/a><figcaption class=\"caption\"><em class=\"credit\"><span class><\/span> Image: Zion Grassl \/ Nintendo Life<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Switch 2\u2019s Year One slightly strayed from the script, but its sequel may be a greater test of Nintendo\u2019s adherence to history.<\/p>\n<p>President Furukawa has teased an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/news\/2026\/05\/nintendo-to-counter-switch-2s-global-price-hikes-with-robust-software-lineup\">increased volume of software<\/a> \u2014 unusual for a console\u2019s sophomore outing \u2014 but with a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/news\/2026\/05\/nintendo-announces-sweeping-price-hikes-for-switch-2\">price hike just around the corner<\/a>, Nintendo also needs to stack the deck with multiple system sellers. Year Two is where the Playbook meets the Price Hike head-on.<\/p>\n<p>Given all that, let\u2019s see how the Year Two predictions are holding up. Two years ago, the Playbook predicted:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>mainline entries for four major franchises: Smash Bros, Kirby, Animal Crossing, and Nintendo Fit<\/li>\n<li>entries in three &#8216;minor&#8217; franchises: Mario Maker, Fire Emblem (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/fire-emblem-fortunes-weave\">confirmed!<\/a>), and Big Brain<\/li>\n<li>spin-offs for Mario and Zelda<\/li>\n<li>series revivals for Wario Land, F-Zero<\/li>\n<li>a remake or remaster in the Mario &amp; Luigi, Pok\u00e9mon, and Golden Sun franchises<\/li>\n<li>and finally, two new IPs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A few changes are in order, as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/splatoon-raiders\">Splatoon spinoff<\/a> is locked in and the now-overdue 3D Mario sequel is a near certainty. Pok\u00e9mon may receive a mainline release two years in a row, but that will depend on the exact release date of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/pokemon-winds-and-waves\">Pok\u00e9mon Winds &amp; Waves<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"picture\" data-uuid=\"42e09581e900c\"><a class=\"scanlines\" title=\"Switch 2 back\" href=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/42e09581e900c\/switch-2-back.large.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/42e09581e900c\/switch-2-back.900x.jpg\" width=\"900\" height=\"600\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Switch 2 back\"><\/a><figcaption class=\"caption\"><em class=\"credit\"><span class><\/span> Image: Zion Grassl \/ Nintendo Life<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>A new mainline Advance Wars title feels unlikely given the lukewarm sales of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch\/advance_wars_1plus2_re-boot_camp\">Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp<\/a>, so perhaps another dormant franchise takes its place.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"picture right\" data-uuid=\"b07988142c356\"><a class=\"scanlines\" title=\"Switch 2 spreadsheet\" href=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/b07988142c356\/switch-2-spreadsheet.large.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/images.nintendolife.com\/b07988142c356\/switch-2-spreadsheet.300x.jpg\" width=\"300\" height=\"377\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Switch 2 spreadsheet\"><\/a><figcaption class=\"caption\"><em class=\"credit\"><span class><\/span> Image: Nathan Lockard \/ Nintendo Life<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Nintendo\u2019s annual Zelda release historically toggles between spin-off and remake\/remaster. Patterns dictated a spin-off in 2024 and a remake for 2025, but instead we got two straight spin-offs in the form of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch\/legend_of_zelda_echoes_of_wisdom\">Echoes of Wisdom<\/a> (which I consider a spin-off despite being canonical) and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/games\/nintendo-switch-2\/hyrule-warriors-age-of-imprisonment\">Age of Imprisonment<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, we\u2019re long overdue for a Zelda remake. Fingers crossed it\u2019s the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/news\/2026\/03\/rumour-nintendos-2026-plans-include-new-star-fox-and-zelda-remake-no-3d-mario\">Ocarina of Time remake<\/a> everyone\u2019s been buzzing about.<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least, the Xenoblade series missed last year\u2019s window, so we\u2019re bumping it back to this coming year.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Wrap-up<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>If all goes according to script, Year Two is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendolife.com\/news\/2026\/05\/stop-stressing-nintendo-says-more-switch-2-games-are-coming\">shaping up to be a banger<\/a>, with both quality and quantity to spare. It may even define the Switch 2\u2019s entire legacy.<\/p>\n<p>Your move, Nintendo. Don&#8217;t make my data look bad.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><em>Do you agree with the &#8216;Playbook&#8217; approach, or has Nintendo changed too much for patterns to apply? Drop a comment below, and let us know what you think.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><!-- cache: html:nintendolife.com\/ssl\/nintendo-switch-2\/related-articles:185286 @ 1780768288 --><\/p>\n<aside class=\"block object-related\"> <\/aside>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Image: Zion Grassl \/ Nintendo Life Exactly two years ago, I made a bold prediction of every first-party Switch 2 release over the first five years of its lifespan. My forecast wasn\u2019t based on leaked insider information or baseless speculation. Instead, I crunched the numbers (check out the full breakdown here) to find trends and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-137476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nintendo-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/137476","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=137476"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/137476\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=137476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=137476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=137476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}