{"id":118662,"date":"2020-09-29T12:32:00","date_gmt":"2020-09-29T12:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gamasutra.com\/view\/news\/370970"},"modified":"2020-09-29T12:32:00","modified_gmt":"2020-09-29T12:32:00","slug":"does-your-game-have-staying-power","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/2020\/09\/29\/does-your-game-have-staying-power\/","title":{"rendered":"Does your game have ‘staying power’?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Gamasutra: Simon Carless’s Blog – Does your game have ‘staying power’?<\/title> <!--[if lt IE 9]> <a href=\"http:\/\/html5shim.googlecode.com\/svn\/trunk\/html5.js\">http:\/\/html5shim.googlecode.com\/svn\/trunk\/html5.js<\/a> <![endif]--> <!-- CSS --> <!-- link href=\"https:\/\/twimgs.com\/gamasutra\/css\/minified.css\" rel=\"stylesheet\" type=\"text\/css\" \/ --> <!-- Mobile Specific Metas --> <!-- Start Visual Website Optimizer Asynchronous Code --> <!-- End Visual Website Optimizer Asynchronous Code --> <!-- Start HeatMap.me Code --> <!-- End HeatMap.me Code --> <!-- Start: GPT Sync --> <!-- End: GPT --> <!-- Eloqua tracking code --> <!-- End Eloqua tracking code --> <!-- Google Tag Manager (noscript) --> <!-- End Google Tag Manager (noscript) --> <!--Cookie banner code starts here --> <!--Cookie banner code ends here --> <!-- Informa Branding code goes here--> <\/p>\n<div id=\"iribbon-container\" class=\"content-body-wrapper\"> <button id=\"iribbon-title\" title=\"show\/hide\" class=\"inactive\">Informa<\/button> <\/p>\n<div id=\"iribbon-detail\" class=\"ribbon-hide\">\n<div id=\"iribbon-left\">\n<p>Gamasutra is part of the Informa Tech Division of Informa PLC<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"iribbon-right\">\n<p>This site is operated by a business or businesses owned by Informa PLC and all copyright resides with them. 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http:\/\/www.gamasutra.com\/blogs\/SimonCarless\/20200928\/370967\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/does-your-game-have-staying-power-1.gif\" alt=\"Share on Twitter\" border=\"0\" height=\"20\"><\/a> <span id=\"edit_post_link\"><\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gamasutra.com\/blogs\/rss\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/does-your-game-have-staying-power-2.gif\" width=\"15\" height=\"15\" border=\"0\" alt=\"RSS\"><\/a> <\/div>\n<hr>\n<div class=\"item_body mobile_image_transform\"> <strong><i><small> The following blog post, unless otherwise noted, was written by a member of Gamasutra\u0092s community.<br \/>The thoughts and opinions expressed are those of the writer and not Gamasutra or its parent company. <\/small><\/i><\/strong> <\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><em>[The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.gamediscover.co\/\">GameDiscoverCo game discovery newsletter<\/a>, which <a href=\"http:\/\/gamediscoverability.substack.com\"><strong>you can subscribe to now<\/strong><\/a>, is written by \u2018how people find your game\u2019 expert Simon Carless, and is a regular look at how people discover and buy video games in the 2020s.]<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Welcome back to another week of meditating on video games, platforms, and how you sell \u2018em. This time out, I wanted to start with a semi-inspirational story, and link it to a discussion of your games\u2019 long-term revenue possibilities. Avanti!<\/p>\n<h2>Wandersong – how it turned out nice again<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.substack.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9d7eb296-9837-43fc-844b-c34c801a3a94_800x398.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt data-attrs=\"{"src":"https:\/\/bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/9d7eb296-9837-43fc-844b-c34c801a3a94_800x398.jpeg","height":398,"width":800,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":79933,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image\/jpeg","href":null}\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/does-your-game-have-staying-power-1.jpg\" width=\"600\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Over on Medium, Greg Lobanov has <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@banovg\/reflecting-on-wandersong-f2891fec09aa\">written a postmortem of delightful singin\u2019 story adventure Wandersong<\/a>, two years after it first shipped. I remember when this game first debuted on Steam, and I was tracking its review numbers and realized\u2026 it just wasn\u2019t doing that well. (I do think Wandersong lacks a strong initial hook, fwiw.)<\/p>\n<p>Greg confirms as much in the article, noting <em>\u201c\u2026our initial sales were way, way less than we were expecting\/hoping for, which was crushing.\u201d <\/em>Using the Wayback Machine, <a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20181014170129\/https:\/\/store.steampowered.com\/app\/530320\/Wandersong\/\">we can see that<\/a> the game had 71 reviews (albeit Very Positive!) three weeks after release. So probably very low single digit thousands of copies.<\/p>\n<p>But good news – the game <a href=\"https:\/\/store.steampowered.com\/app\/530320\/Wandersong\/\">now has 874 Overwhelmingly Positive reviews<\/a>, and Greg shares his (no Y axis) Steam revenue numbers below, noting: <em>\u201cWhat seemed like a scary and quiet launch turned out to be the beginning of a slower, different kind of success altogether\u2026 I guess I\u2019d chalk it up to good word of mouth.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.substack.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc9246869-faec-4153-aed5-a2ee052e26b6_1013x387.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt data-attrs=\"{"src":"https:\/\/bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/c9246869-faec-4153-aed5-a2ee052e26b6_1013x387.png","height":387,"width":1013,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":52767,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image\/png","href":null}\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/does-your-game-have-staying-power-2.png\" width=\"600\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Appearing on Xbox Game Pass in December 2019 also helped more people appreciate Wandersong (I played and loved the game because of Game Pass!). But on Steam it looks like the game carved out a niche regardless. And it did great when discounted, presumably because of both converting wishlisters and opportunistic sale buyers.<\/p>\n<p>The point I took from this? Well, I was looking at sales ratios for Steam games I have access to stats for. It seems like a \u2018base\u2019 among these games is for Year 1 revenue to be 2.5x Week 1 revenue – for a positively reviewed game that had its fans clustering to buy when the game launched.<\/p>\n<p>But another game I saw managed 2.5x Week 1 revenue in Month 1 alone, due to streamer featuring, and 5.5x first week in Year 1. Sometimes these are games that had Very Positive Steam reviews, ideally some updates, but definitely good word of mouth and \u2018staying power\u2019. GaaS-y games that start in Early Access can do even better – I\u2019ve seen one with lifetime revenue – two and a half years so far – of 17x first week, for example.<\/p>\n<p>Anyhow, what I\u2019m trying to say is – I\u2019m guessing that Wandersong\u2019s total Steam revenue is now 7-10x (or even more!) than of its first week. So if you have a slow start, but your game is great – hold out hope and push for that Wandersong-style long tail. It wasn\u2019t a smash, but it gave Greg and friends enough money to keep making games.<\/p>\n<p>(Finally, I appreciate that Greg is honest about the mental strain of just, well, releasing a game: <em>\u201cWhether a game is a runaway success or a runaway failure, creators will always find a reason to feel terrible when their project comes out.\u201d <\/em>Please, both publishers and friends of people releasing games – support them, cos it\u2019s a period of such intense stress.)<\/p>\n<h2>Demos\/prologues – should we be questioning their value?<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.substack.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54edb7f5-f68d-4195-904b-12ca3ad895f5_800x303.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt data-attrs=\"{"src":"https:\/\/bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/54edb7f5-f68d-4195-904b-12ca3ad895f5_800x303.jpeg","height":303,"width":800,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":64771,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image\/jpeg","href":null}\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/does-your-game-have-staying-power-2.jpg\" width=\"600\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I have to admit I\u2019m feeling confused recently by the value of making a demo (or standalone prologue) version of your game recently, particularly on Steam. Does just spamming out demos for your games on all platforms really, really help sales?<\/p>\n<p>At least on Nintendo Switch, where there\u2019s some obvious top-level search mechanisms for demos, it was at one point worthwhile for increased visibility. Here\u2019s a clear example via Death Squared for Switch:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Here’s our first years stats and you can see that when the demo released the tail got fatter. We shared this on <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/rNintendoSwitch?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@rNintendoSwitch<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/QTf16xndKq\">https:\/\/t.co\/QTf16xndKq<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YGkIDlH1r5\">pic.twitter.com\/YGkIDlH1r5<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 SMG Studio (@smgstudio) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/smgstudio\/status\/1146930647891451904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 4, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>However, can you make a Steam demo for your game that is succinct, doesn\u2019t give away too much, will reach many new players, and leaves them wanting more?<\/p>\n<p>I was chatting to SomaSim\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/rzubek\">Rob Zubek<\/a> (<a href=\"https:\/\/store.steampowered.com\/app\/1386780\/City_of_Gangsters\/\">City Of Gangsters<\/a>) about this recently, and he made a couple of good points: <em>\u201cFirstly, there’s psychological research that people evaluate freebies differently (as less valuable) than things that cost them something, even just a symbolic token amount. Dan Ariely’s \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goodreads.com\/book\/show\/1713426.Predictably_Irrational\">Predictably Irrational<\/a>\u2019 has good material on this.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Two: for systemic games, it’s hard to figure out how to slice it up in such a way that the demo is both comprehensive enough to be interesting, yet leaves the player wanting more. I have no evidence but from my own experience with demos, it feels like demos of systemic games leave me not wanting more.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Apart from the \u2018finding new players\u2019 issue, think the biggest issue for me may be conversion rate. It\u2019s possible that 10,000 demo\/prologue installations on Steam will end up with a tiny percentage converting? Early in the development of <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Xbox_Live_Arcade\">Xbox Live Arcade<\/a>, when it was demo-centric, the average conversion rate (from trial download to purchase) <a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20080625000700\/http:\/\/www.microsoftcasualgames.msn.com\/developers_resources\/VAustin_MS_Casual_Games.pdf\">was 18%<\/a> [PDF link].<\/p>\n<p>But that was with limited inventory, and crazily high <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gamasutra.com\/view\/feature\/2695\/the_basic_marketing_plan_for_indie_.php\">compared to PC casual game portals<\/a> back in the day, starting at 1%, and <em>\u201c..the rule of thumb could be that very targeted games receive higher conversion rates, up to 2%, 3% or even 5% while more generic games, or games with severe competition may receive a .1% – .5% conversion rate.\u201d <\/em>So.. your Prologue with 10k downloads and a couple of hundred Steam reviews could lead to\u2026 100 extra sales, if things go ehhh?<\/p>\n<p>On the plus side, it looks like <a href=\"https:\/\/gamediscoverability.substack.com\/p\/how-to-get-nearly-250k-steam-wishlists\">The Riftbreaker\u2019s Steam prologue<\/a> has further helped its case and has reached new audiences, who then added to the hype. But with <a href=\"https:\/\/store.steampowered.com\/app\/1251750\/Family_Man_Prologue\/\">a pre-release Prologue<\/a> that No More Robots published, I feel like the demo\/prologue was pretty marginal in terms of affecting the game\u2019s success. (Many positive reviews from people who were already fans, so were planning to buy the game anyhow?) This may be closer to the default in the crowded Steam market.<\/p>\n<p>I also think you can make errors with demos that can turn off potential buyers. And overall, I think demos are probably being over-prioritized as a marketing tool right now. But\u2026 demos may allow you to build Steam wishlists that you can get sale discounts emailed to? So it\u2019s complicated.<\/p>\n<p><em>(If you have opinions or data on demos, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gamasutra.com\/cdn-cgi\/l\/email-protection#98ebf1f5f7f6d8fff9f5fdfcf1ebfbf7eefdeab6fbf7\">please ping me<\/a> and we\u2019ll do a follow-up column with thoughts from readers.)<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Other stuff\u2026<\/h2>\n<p>OK, am ending out this round-up with a few other notable data points, as per usual. (Feel free to tip me <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gamasutra.com\/cdn-cgi\/l\/email-protection#0b78626664654b6c6a666e6f627868647d6e79256864\">via email<\/a> or <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/gamediscoverco\">on Twitter<\/a> if you spot any we missed.)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>In \u2018clever ways to do instant demos\u2019 news on iPhone, iOS 14 has a new App Clip feature, which is basically \u2018instantly playable <10 mb game snippet\u2019. And one game – Phoenix 2 – <a href=\"https:\/\/toucharcade.com\/2020\/09\/25\/phoenix-2-app-clip-game-demo\/\">has already got it working<\/a>. Interesting, huh?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Steam has <a href=\"https:\/\/steamcommunity.com\/games\/593110\/announcements\/detail\/2872690384632158520\">released its top new 20 games of August<\/a> chat (as well as the top 5 new free-to-play titles for the month – I was very amused to see Frog Fractions in there.) Quite a lot of Early Access -> 1.0 releases in there (Undermine, Factorio, Risk Of Rain 2), but also new debuts like Rogue Legacy 2 and Spiritfarer. And, uh, Train Sim World 2!<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>So, who\u2019s going to buy these newfangled consoles – at least in the U.S. – this holiday season? NPD\u2019s Mat Piscatella pointed out this Civic Science survey on buyer intent, which is interesting. Xbox faring a bit better in aggregate than \u2018core gamers\u2019 might think?<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">In case you missed it, check a look… “Intent to Buy New PlayStation, Xbox Consoles Neck-and-Neck This Holiday Season” via <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CivicScience?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@CivicScience<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KQ2S41Epy5\">https:\/\/t.co\/KQ2S41Epy5<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/0cSKsEnK5Q\">pic.twitter.com\/0cSKsEnK5Q<\/a><\/p>\n<p> \u2014 Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MatPiscatella\/status\/1310374577847984128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 28, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Rise To Ruins dev Raymond Doerr just hit $2 million gross on Steam, and was kind enough to <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RaymondDoerr\/status\/1309388904601133056\">link his Steam back end summary page<\/a> for the <a href=\"https:\/\/store.steampowered.com\/app\/328080\/Rise_to_Ruins\/#:~:text=Rise%20to%20Ruins%20on%20Steam&text=A%20regularly%20updated%2C%20brutal%20godlike,quite%20like%20any%20of%20them.\">godlike village sim<\/a> on Twitter. Things to note: net to gross was 84% without Steam cut – with an 8.5% refund rate & the rest going to VAT. (So that\u2019s 58.8% net, after Steam cut.) Also, 320,000 units is a LOT for $2 mil gross – cheaper EA, and sometimes discount-driven? Impressive, though – poke around!<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>So, you are going to be able to stream Xbox games to your iPhone. But rather than going with Amazon\u2019s web browser approach (maybe they\u2019ll do that later too!), Microsoft is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2020\/9\/25\/21456260\/xbox-one-games-iphone-streaming-xbox-app-microsoft-features\">rolling out a \u2018remote play\u2019-style streaming approach<\/a> from your Xbox. And the cloud gaming options just keep booting up, here.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Finally, just to show how exceptional Among Us\u2019 stats have been recently, Steam themselves Tweeted this out the other day. Seriously? Seriously:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"und\">\u00f0\u0178\u201c\u02c6\u00f0\u0178\u2018\u20ac <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/InnerslothDevs?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@InnerslothDevs<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YoUEQfVRb4\">https:\/\/t.co\/YoUEQfVRb4<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/dZDNh9F4vC\">pic.twitter.com\/dZDNh9F4vC<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Steam (@Steam) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Steam\/status\/1310278033283055617?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 27, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><em>[This newsletter is handcrafted by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.gamediscover.co\/\">GameDiscoverCo<\/a>, a new agency based around one simple issue: how do players find, buy and enjoy your premium PC or console game? We\u2019ll be launching a \u2018Plus\u2019 paid newsletter tier with lots of extra info\/data – watch out for it soon!]<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<hr>\n<div class=\"hide-phone\">\n<h3>Related Jobs<\/h3>\n<div class=\"stories_item\">\n<div class=\"thumb\"><a href=\"https:\/\/jobs.gamasutra.com\/job\/senior-material-artist-espoo-34587\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/does-your-game-have-staying-power-3.gif\" alt=\"Remedy Entertainment\" width=\"120\"><\/a><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"stories_item\">\n<div class=\"thumb\"><a href=\"https:\/\/jobs.gamasutra.com\/job\/development-manager-xdev-team-espoo-34586\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/does-your-game-have-staying-power-3.gif\" alt=\"Remedy Entertainment\" width=\"120\"><\/a><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"stories_item\">\n<div class=\"thumb\"><a href=\"https:\/\/jobs.gamasutra.com\/job\/animation-director-espoo-34585\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/does-your-game-have-staying-power-3.gif\" alt=\"Remedy Entertainment\" width=\"120\"><\/a><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"stories_item\">\n<div class=\"thumb\"><a href=\"https:\/\/jobs.gamasutra.com\/job\/development-director-espoo-34553\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/does-your-game-have-staying-power-3.gif\" alt=\"Remedy Entertainment\" width=\"120\"><\/a><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<hr><\/div>\n<p> <!-- InstanceEndEditable --> <\/div>\n<p><!--end contentbox-->\n<\/div>\n<p><!--end span-16--> <\/div>\n<p> <br class=\"clear\"> <\/div>\n<p><!--end span-21--> <!--begin right sidebar--> <!--end right sidebar--> <!– <\/div>\n<p> Extra Div –> <!-- Beginning Sync AdSlot 21 for Ad unit Gamasutra\/\/consolepc ### size: [[8,2]] --> <!-- End AdSlot 21 --> <!-- Beginning Sync AdSlot 22 for Ad unit Gamasutra\/\/consolepc ### size: [[8,4]] --> <!-- End AdSlot 22 --> <!-- Beginning Sync AdSlot 23 for Ad unit Gamasutra\/\/consolepc ### size: [[4,4]] --> <!-- End AdSlot 23 --> <br class=\"clear\"><\/p><\/div>\n<p><!--end content-body-wrapper--> <\/div>\n<p><!--end container--><br \/>\n<!--begin footer--> <!--end footer--> <!-- SiteCatalyst code version: H.21.\nCopyright 1996-2010 Adobe, Inc. 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