{"id":111372,"date":"2020-04-10T15:32:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-10T15:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gamasutra.com\/view\/news\/361010"},"modified":"2020-04-10T15:32:00","modified_gmt":"2020-04-10T15:32:00","slug":"blog-the-likelihood-of-making-10000-in-your-first-month-on-steam","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/2020\/04\/10\/blog-the-likelihood-of-making-10000-in-your-first-month-on-steam\/","title":{"rendered":"Blog: The likelihood of making $10,000 in your first month on Steam"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><i><small> The following blog post, unless otherwise noted, was written by a member of Gamasutra\u0092s community.<br \/>The thoughts and opinions expressed are those of the writer and not Gamasutra or its parent company. <\/small><\/i><\/strong> <\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>The world is complicated.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I like attempting to decipher the truth from the noise.<\/p>\n<p>I also happen to be a game designer\/developer and enjoy finding and analysing relevant stats. Valve recently posted some graphs showing that more games than ever are making at least $10,000 in the first 30 days of Launch on Steam. Great news for independent digital creatives. They had various ways of analysing the stats and you can <a href=\"https:\/\/steamcommunity.com\/groups\/steamworks\/announcements\/detail\/2117195691992645419\">read more in their original post<\/a>. Here\u2019s a nice graph they made, taken from <a href=\"https:\/\/partner.steamgames.com\/doc\/blog\/2020\/new_releases\">the appendix of that article<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"301\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/blog-the-likelihood-of-making-10000-in-your-first-month-on-steam.jpg\" width=\"602\"><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I&nbsp;thought it might also be useful to add some context to those figures as the number of games being released on Steam has also been increasing in recent years.<\/p>\n<p>Below is a table showing the percentage of new releases that hit the above metric of making at least $10k in the first 30 days of launch. Please keep in mind this is <strong>an indication of trends rather than the precise results<\/strong> for the following reasons:<\/p>\n<ul readability=\"3\">\n<li dir=\"ltr\" readability=\"-1\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">I&#8217;m estimating the number of games that hit $10k based on squinting at the above bar chart!<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li dir=\"ltr\" readability=\"-1\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">The bar chart above excludes games that are free to download.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li dir=\"ltr\" readability=\"5\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">I&#8217;m cross referencing those numbers with Steam Spy\u2019s numbers for total releases in each year, which does not exclude games that are free to download. Because of this we would expect the percent of releases reaching this metric to be higher than in the table below, especially in recent years as more freemium games get released. However, freemium games are still the minority of releases on Steam so let\u2019s not worry too much about this for now.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<table>\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"68\">\n<col width=\"117\">\n<col width=\"237\">\n<col width=\"180\"><\/colgroup>\n<tbody readability=\"2.8034934497817\">\n<tr readability=\"6\">\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">Year<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">New Releases*<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td readability=\"5\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">Games Earning at Least $10k in 30 Days of Launch**<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td readability=\"5\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">% of Releases that Hit $10k in 30 Days<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">2008<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">168<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">105<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">63<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">2009<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">256<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">195<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">76<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">2010<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">282<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">175<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">62<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">2011<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">302<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">205<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">68<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">2012<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">374<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">210<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">56<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">2013<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">507<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">330<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">65<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">2014<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">1503<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">730<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">49<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">2015<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">2718<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">770<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">28<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">2016<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">4514<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">945<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">21<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">2017<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">6515<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">1040<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">16<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">2018<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">8198<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">1040<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">13<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">2019<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">8128<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">1220<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">15<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>&nbsp;<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\"><a href=\"https:\/\/steamspy.com\/year\/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=a67aee8947a3939e50a6de177692a24552052870-1586340122-0-AXXRw1s1OP9tKPOQnkQzqxrMuVuOSY07D80kNGJS0-M0dDIuonkJBH69EnHZm8Y3hVH7PNWxZSHaX6x8Vq8gjihSHbMQpgG5zjU4-CaN7AqLOGcEa9_hP01jMNxdzwhGOaD5x8Y6Z-Wg3jYPnzV5CdYrreJbT1qVjz8w59BXTeLZskTpZ1jsIQOZKtzPGUuakErmKpxAXiDqzB9MYyqMuJzJ1A1wGdb4uidqz_DlNh6-JMZnQkY5pRmMOGEoSyCtYCnRe-DZ5X7Amwo4TSyE7Nk\">Source: Steam Spy<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\"><a href=\"https:\/\/partner.steamgames.com\/doc\/blog\/2020\/new_releases\">Source: Valve<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>&nbsp;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr readability=\"3\">\n<td>&nbsp;<\/td>\n<td>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">*Free games not excluded<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td readability=\"5\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">**Estimated figures based on a bar chart created by Valve. Free games excluded.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>&nbsp;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Here&#8217;s&nbsp;a bar chart of the same table data so it\u2019s easier to visualise.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"401\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/blog-the-likelihood-of-making-10000-in-your-first-month-on-steam-1.jpg\" width=\"602\"><\/strong><br \/> We can clearly see that, as you might expect, as more games become available on Steam, a smaller percentage of them are able to achieve revenue of at least $10,000 in the first 30 days of launch.<\/p>\n<p><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">Should Indies Get Out The Pitch Forks and Tweet Valve With Great Vengeance and Furious Anger?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">No.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">In my opinion, Valve have taken on a very difficult task, and one that I respect. As I see it they are trying to battle natural macro behavior. <a href=\"https:\/\/gamasutra.com\/blogs\/ShazYousaf\/20200318\/359700\/Using_Steam_Data_To_Understand_Gamers.php\">In a previous article<\/a> I briefly touched on the Pareto principle. It\u2019s a strange phenomena that tends to crop up in many avenues of society. Essentially, perhaps because of our innate behaviours of forming hierarchies, worshiping the same idols and copying what those around us do, most of us tend to talk about the same things, play the same games, listen to the same music and [insert activity] as those in our perceived community. This means you get a small number of \u201cbig winners\u201d and a large number of \u201csmall winners\u201d if winning means achieving popularity in any given domain. In other words, it&#8217;s not &#8220;Steam&#8217;s Fault&#8221; if the most popular games massivly oveshadow the other games.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">You can read <a href=\"https:\/\/forums.sinsofasolarempire.com\/492794\/game-developer-economics-of-2019\">an article by Stardock<\/a>, creators of Sins of a Solar Empire, to hear some more interesting thoughts on the Pareto Principle, the changing landscape of Steam and their response to it as a creative business.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">So how are Valve combatting the effect? They are introducing various new discovery tools and algorithms that, in theory, will only display games that an individual user is likely to genuinely enjoy. So even if game X is the current top selling game of the week, a user who shows no interest in that \u201cstyle\u201d of game should not see it on their Steam front page. Instead they\u2019ll see games that interest them. This&nbsp;is fairly new ground that Valve have yet to perfect. But they are definitely trying and I commend that. As an anecdotal aside I think Spotify do a good job of recommending tracks and artists based on user preference and Youtube do a moderately good job of recommending content based on user preference.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">I&nbsp;should point out my bias though. Myself and two comrades released a niche game on Steam which we thought might get some downloads at release and then drop to 0 soon after launch. However, we have been pleasantly surprised to see that it has consistently been shown to Steam users every month and consistently gets bought and downloaded. Due to this modest success, we\u2019ve been able to attract some publishers who want to push it out onto more platforms. So my personal perspective is that I\u2019m grateful to have the opportunity to follow my creative passions (I like designing games that try and make people feel connected to each other) *and* have a platform that helps us to monetise our creations every month through their automated systems.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">False Assumptions?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">I think some of us have an assumption that \u201ca level playing field\u201d is possible. By that I mean a world without \u201ctop 10\u201d charts and where the disparity between the rich poor does not continue to spiral. However, I now question that assumption. It might be more likely that the sum of human activity looks very much like a scaled up version of our basic tribal instincts where we want to belong to a group and feel the same as those around us. The more interconnected and fast moving our societies and social\/financial networks are, the more quickly the big winners surface and become dominant in their field because they can amass more followers at a rapid rate of acceleration.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong id=\"docs-internal-guid-e561c02f-7fff-262c-38f4-0e420d9fcdf7\">Practical Strategies<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>So what does this all mean on a practical level if you are&nbsp; a small studio trying to sustain yourselves with the content you create? There could be various strategies. Here are a few different approaches:<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Don\u2019t try and compete in saturated markets\/platforms. Find emerging markets\/platforms and enjoy the relative fame there while you can before the larger organisations move in and dominate. We saw this happen with Apple\u2019s App Store and in the PC space there have been several new platforms springing up in recent years that you could investigate. There are always new opportunities to take advantage of.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Figure out how you can beat the larger organisations at their own game. This is obviously very challenging and perhaps foolhardy. However, if you have a good understanding of what customers really need\/want and you have an efficient design\/production approach you might discover what you *don\u2019t* need to build into your products. This will allow you to prioritise what your audience wants and build it with a smaller team, ignoring costly features that traditional studios still assume are necessary.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Don\u2019t try and be the star. Instead of wanting the limelight for yourself and rolling the dice to try and make that happen, build tools that allow others to follow their dreams.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Rather than attempting to create your own network or following, make use of an existing one. Find an emerging network\/service\/product and build your content on top of it to give that audience more ways to enjoy the core product.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Work with larger partners. An established publisher or investor would not expect all their projects to make a profit. If they\u2019ve calculated their risk portfolio well, the hits they have will far outweigh the cost of the losses. On the flipside, if you are relying on your single project to be a hit, you\u2019re playing a risky game.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Ignore anything to do with shifting business landscapes. Follow your creative instincts, place your bet and go all-in. You might get lucky, someone has to! (Don\u2019t actually do this unless you are young and have a wealthy family who can\/will support you if you go broke!)<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Ok that\u2019s it from me for now, I don\u2019t often use Twitter but I do have an account so you can message me <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/HoneyTribeStu\">@HoneyTribeStu<\/a> (although it might take me a while to respond)<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Cheers,<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Shaz Yousaf<br \/> &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The following blog post, unless otherwise noted, was written by a member of Gamasutra\u0092s community.The thoughts and opinions expressed are those of the writer and not Gamasutra or its parent company. The world is complicated.&nbsp; I like attempting to decipher the truth from the noise. I also happen to be a game designer\/developer and enjoy [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":111373,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-111372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111372","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111372"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111372\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/111373"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111372"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111372"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sickgaming.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111372"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}